1627

This post has nothing to do with the Puritans in Massachussetts or the first European sighting of Australia or anything else that happened in the year 1627.

The number 1627 is a critical threshold in the Democratic primary race. It is 50% + 1 of the 3252 pledged delegates. The candidate who reaches that number will have the strongest legitimate claim to the party's nomination in August. It's hard to imagine the majority of super-delegates voting for the other person; to do so would risk an ugly civil war among Democrats.

Currently, just after the polls have closed in the Mississippi primary, realclearpolitics.com shows Obama with 1395 pledged delegates, Clinton with 1237. Several pundits are estimating that Obama will reach the 1627 threshold on May 20th during the Oregon and Kentucky primaries.

It remains to be seen whether some lucky Oregon or Kentucky Democrat will be awarded a prize for casting the vote that put one of the candidates over the top. But one can only hope that the other candidate will acknowledge defeat and bow out gracefully.