For many Democrats trying to decide who to support, the most important question is this: Which candidate would fare better against John McCain in the general election?
According to some polling data released today, both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama would beat him, with Obama doing just a smidgen better.
SurveyUSA (or SUSA, for short) has been one of the most reliable pollsters during this primary season. Today they published the results of two head-to-head polls carried out in each of the 50 states. From these they infer the following electoral college tallies: Clinton vs. McCain: 276-262 and Obama vs. McCain: 280-258.
Although the net electoral numbers are almost the same, it's interesting to observe that Clinton and Obama achieve their victories by somewhat different means. Clinton loses the blue states Washington, Oregon, Iowa, and Michigan, but she wins the red states Arkansas and Florida. Obama loses the blue states Pennsylvania and New Jersey, but wins the red states Nevada, Colorado, North Dakota, and Virginia. Somewhat surprisingly, they both win Ohio by 10% margins.
Note: A close look at SurveyUSA's data reveals that in most of these 100 polls, the winner's margin of victory is exceeded by the sum of the margin of error (4%) plus the number of undecideds. So remember: "Your mileage may vary."
The following maps show the battlefields (click on either for a larger view):
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